Lowe, who was coveted by the Mets for their starting rotation, will join a rebuilt rotation featuring newcomers Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami, as well as returning project Jorge Campillo and sophomore Jair Jurrjens.
The Mets will have to counter the loss of Lowe to a divisional rival by signing one of the team's 'backup' options. Jon Heyman, of Sports Illustrated, told MLB Network that the Mets have offered a three-year contract, worth about $30 million, to starting pitcher Oliver Perez.
Although Perez, 27, is younger than Lowe, 35, there is little in terms of statistical evidence to suggest that the Mets will be a better team in 2009 with Perez in their rotation.
A comparison of the past three seasons shows that Lowe has been a more reliable and more effective starting pitcher.
Lowe's least effective season in this span came in 2007. His increased walk rate countered his decreased number of hits per start. Although the rates combined for the same amount of base runners per inning, the old adage seemed to prove true for Lowe: batters that reach base by walk are more likely to score than those who reach base by base hit.
Perez' most successful season came in 2007; which, as impressive of a 'step forward' as the season was for the lefty, was comparable to Lowe's 2007.
Despite his struggles in 2008, Perez proved to be a reliable starting pitcher capable of pitching about 200 innings while holding his own against major league hitters.
Just for fun, here are some projections for Perez based off of trends in his last three seasons.
* - Best case, ^ - Worst case
If Perez can accomplish numbers close to those projections, then the Mets could have two of the more effective left handed starting pitchers, Johan Santana being the other, in the National League, which is a significant factor considering that the divisional rival Phillies rely on the left handed bats of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.
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