Perez returns to Mets to complete 2009 rotation

The Mets and free agent starting pitcher Oliver Perez, 27, agreed to a three-year contract on Monday worth approximately $36 mllion, according to The New York Post.

Perez will re-join Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and either Tim Redding or Freddy Garcia to compose the team's starting rotation.

The contract does not include a fourth-year option or performance incentives, keeping the average yearly salary at $12 million per year. Perez made $6.5 million in 2008.

The Mets initially

offered the left-hander a three-year contract worth about $30 million, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.

Acquired on the 2006 trading deadline from the Pittsburgh Pirates, along with relief pitcher Roberto Hernandez, Perez has matured into a mainstay in the Mets rotation, starting 63 games over the past two seasons.

Control issues have troubled Perez, who led the league in walks last season with 105, over his professional career, but his high strikeout rate, 1027 strikeouts in 999.1 career Major League innings, makes him an intriguing talent.

Braves send Mets a Lowe blow

Free agent starting pitcher Derek Lowe has agreed to a four-year contract with the Atlanta Braves, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Lowe, who was coveted by the Mets for their starting rotation, will join a rebuilt rotation featuring newcomers Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami, as well as returning project Jorge Campillo and sophomore Jair Jurrjens.

The Mets will have to counter the loss of Lowe to a divisional rival by signing one of the team's 'backup' options. Jon Heyman, of Sports Illustrated, told MLB Network that the Mets have offered a three-year contract, worth about $30 million, to starting pitcher Oliver Perez.

Although Perez, 27, is younger than Lowe, 35, there is little in terms of statistical evidence to suggest that the Mets will be a better team in 2009 with Perez in their rotation.

A comparison of the past three seasons shows that Lowe has been a more reliable and more effective starting pitcher.





Lowe's least effective season in this span came in 2007. His increased walk rate countered his decreased number of hits per start. Although the rates combined for the same amount of base runners per inning, the old adage seemed to prove true for Lowe: batters that reach base by walk are more likely to score than those who reach base by base hit.





Perez' most successful season came in 2007; which, as impressive of a 'step forward' as the season was for the lefty, was comparable to Lowe's 2007.

Despite his struggles in 2008, Perez proved to be a reliable starting pitcher capable of pitching about 200 innings while holding his own against major league hitters.

Just for fun, here are some projections for Perez based off of trends in his last three seasons.





* - Best case, ^ - Worst case

If Perez can accomplish numbers close to those projections, then the Mets could have two of the more effective left handed starting pitchers, Johan Santana being the other, in the National League, which is a significant factor considering that the divisional rival Phillies rely on the left handed bats of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.