Citi Field's black hole: the left field platoon

A group of New York Mets' players arrived at the team's Spring Training facility in Port St. Lucie, Fla., during the past week. The group included third baseman David Wright as well as pitchers Johan Santana and Oliver Perez.

The entirety of the team's pitching staff and catching corps are required to report to camp by Friday, Feb. 13.

Outfielder-in-training Daniel Murphy was also an early arrival.

Murphy, 24 by opening day, has been penciled into a platoon with veteran utility man Fernando Tatis, 34, to play left field for the 2009 Mets.

The two split time in left field during August and September of 2008 for the Mets, until an injury ended Tatis' season.

Although effective in 2008, the combination was composed of a rookie, Murphy, and a come back surprise, Tatis.

Neither of the two players showed proper indications that their 2008 contributions were their capable level of play; instead, both players overachieved logical expectations.

Tatis was rewarded as the National League's "Comeback Player of the Year" for his 2008 performance.

Murphy, a 13th round draft pick in 2006, broke out last season and excelled all the way to the Major Leagues, where he impressed fans, scouts and teammates.

However, despite their success in 2008, projections for 2009 suggest that the Mets would be wise to acquire an everyday left fielder, displacing the surprise duo to bench duties, and even a return to the minor leagues for Murphy.





Although the Feb. 1, 2009, projections from PECOTA, represented as PEC, and the 2009 Bill James Handbook, represented as BJH, vary greatly for Daniel Murphy, the two both expect
Tatis to be a less than adequate left fielder.





Plenty of options still remain in the free agent market. Right handed Manny Ramirez tops the list, while left handed hitters Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn provide significant upgrades as well.

Braves send Mets a Lowe blow

Free agent starting pitcher Derek Lowe has agreed to a four-year contract with the Atlanta Braves, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Lowe, who was coveted by the Mets for their starting rotation, will join a rebuilt rotation featuring newcomers Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami, as well as returning project Jorge Campillo and sophomore Jair Jurrjens.

The Mets will have to counter the loss of Lowe to a divisional rival by signing one of the team's 'backup' options. Jon Heyman, of Sports Illustrated, told MLB Network that the Mets have offered a three-year contract, worth about $30 million, to starting pitcher Oliver Perez.

Although Perez, 27, is younger than Lowe, 35, there is little in terms of statistical evidence to suggest that the Mets will be a better team in 2009 with Perez in their rotation.

A comparison of the past three seasons shows that Lowe has been a more reliable and more effective starting pitcher.





Lowe's least effective season in this span came in 2007. His increased walk rate countered his decreased number of hits per start. Although the rates combined for the same amount of base runners per inning, the old adage seemed to prove true for Lowe: batters that reach base by walk are more likely to score than those who reach base by base hit.





Perez' most successful season came in 2007; which, as impressive of a 'step forward' as the season was for the lefty, was comparable to Lowe's 2007.

Despite his struggles in 2008, Perez proved to be a reliable starting pitcher capable of pitching about 200 innings while holding his own against major league hitters.

Just for fun, here are some projections for Perez based off of trends in his last three seasons.





* - Best case, ^ - Worst case

If Perez can accomplish numbers close to those projections, then the Mets could have two of the more effective left handed starting pitchers, Johan Santana being the other, in the National League, which is a significant factor considering that the divisional rival Phillies rely on the left handed bats of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez.

Predicting Pelfrey

SNY's Ted Berg recently wrote that the Mets should consider moving 23-year old Mike Pelfrey into the bullpen for the 2008 season , citing that several of today's current closers were once starters themselves. Berg's list includes, amongst others, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera.

Really? Did he really just compare Mike Pelfrey to two future hall of famers? Seriously? Let's take a look at some rookie numbers....





The numbers are remarkably similar, but before we kick Pelfrey out of the rotation for good, let's instead have some fun and project him as the 2008 Mets 5th starting pitcher.


* - Best case, ^ - Worst case

The Mets rotation should be relatively solid if Pelfrey can put up those numbers, that is unless Pelfrey in fact bombs. By the way, these numbers are based off of a positive trend from Pelfrey's major league numbers towards his minor league totals.

Although Pelfrey may one day become a late inning reliever, there is currently no reason for the Mets to entertain this idea; however, this notion changes entirely should the Mets acquire another Major League quality starting pitcher, especially if this pitcher is the ace the Mets are seeking.